With all the changes in trade policy since February 3, it might be easy to get confused. So here’s a quick update on where the trade battles stand and how this impacts the wines you may want to buy and the vintners who make them.

Wait a second. I thought the tariffs were paused, right?

Some of the tariffs are paused. On April 2, in an address from the Rose Garden of the White House, the President announced a series of tariffs on nearly every nation, based on their total annual trade surplus with the United States. The idea was, if a nation is exporting more goods to the United States than it imports, that must be because of unfair trade barriers. Those proposed tariffs rates included 20 percent tariffs for European Union members, 30 percent for South Africa and 17 percent for Israel.

The tariffs went into effect on April 9. Later that day, Trump announced they would be paused for 90 days to allow for nations to negotiate with the U.S. government and strike deals that would reduce trade imbalances.

But in Trump’s Rose Garden address, he also announced that every nation would face a minimum tariff of 10 percent. That list includes nations like Brazil that import more from the U.S. than they export to the U.S. Trump believes 10 percent is a baseline tariff all imports should face for the foreseeable future.

Are those all the tariffs?

Not exactly. First of all, Trump has already imposed a 25 percent tariff on steel and aluminum imports from all nations. He’s also enacted a 25 percent tariff on automobiles and most automobile parts. In fact, the EU was in the process of devising retaliatory tariffs to the metal duties when Trump imposed his April 2 tariffs. Once he paused, they agreed to pause as well so that Brussels and Washington can negotiate.

Mexico and Canada also face 25 percent tariffs on about half of their exports to the U.S. Those tariffs led the governments in nine of Canada’s 10 provinces to remove American wines from stores and restaurants, wiping out U.S. wine’s biggest market, worth more than $1 billion annually.

And then there’s the panda in the room—China. After a back and forth all this week, Chinese exports to the U.S. now face 145 percent tariffs, while American exports to China face 125 percent tariffs. Chinese President Xi Jinping claims no further retaliation is imminent, but negotiations will not be easy.

While China is not a big market for American wineries, it did reach nearly $50 million last year. Also, China is a source for parts for U.S. wineries, particularly glass bottles. Those are all a lot more expensive now.

OK, so my favorite imported wine faces a 10 percent tariff now. Who pays that?

Primarily you. While Trump has long claimed that foreign companies pay tariffs, that’s not usually the case. The new tariffs will effectively function as a 10 percent sales tax on your wine. When the wine arrives in U.S. ports, the importers must pay the tariff then to get the wine out of customs. So a bottle they paid the winery $30 for now costs them $33. As the wine goes through a wholesaler and then a retailer or restaurant, they all add their markups—that’s not unfair, they’re running a business after all. But it means that the wine that you used to pay $60 for, now costs you $66.

Now, while 10 percent is not what wineries have been used to, it is much better than 20 percent or 200 percent. So some wineries may be able to swallow a bit of that cost in order to keep their customers. But if Trump plans to keep 10 percent tariffs in place for a long time or if he plans to raise them again after the 90-day pause, foreign wineries are going to begin looking for other markets to sell to. Then the U.S. would lose some of the diversity of wine selections that makes its market so dynamic.”

WINESPECTATOR.com

Further perspectives from InfoBae.com: 8th June, 2025

“Carlos Fiochetta, manager of the Argentine Wine Corporation (Coviar), also shared his opinion:
“One possibility is that U.S. wineries will take market share from those who export to that country, in bottled wine, must, and bulk wine. If the U.S. wanted to supply its market with domestic wine, it could do so. We’re talking about the country that consumes the most wine in the world,” he commented.

“Another possibility is that the Europeans go looking for new markets, such as Brazil, which is the second or third most important market for Argentina,” he added.

An optimistic outlook
Currently, exporting wineries must pay a 10% tariff to enter the U.S. However, the wine sector remains hopeful that this situation will change.

“We’re still waiting for a deal to be made. President Trump tends to come out swinging and then sit down to negotiate with each country,” Bressia pointed out.

Despite the adverse context, the most active Argentine wineries in the U.S. market are determined not to lose ground. According to industry sources, many of them are trying to negotiate directly with their distributors or importers in the U.S. to cushion the impact of the new tariff and maintain shelf presence.

However, this is no easy task. Fiochetta from Coviar warned that many importers are putting deals on hold due to widespread uncertainty. “There are ships that aren’t docking because no one knows what’s going to happen,” he lamented.

U.S. importers are halting operations due to the uncertainty.

Bressia, for his part, explained that the U.S. external market is highly segmented by price.
“For mass-market wines, we’re going to have to negotiate. For higher-end wines, although there will be negotiations too, the impact won’t be as great. Someone who pays $25 can easily pay $27,” he opined.

In the meantime, the sector hopes a window for diplomatic negotiation will open. Argentina is said to have already begun talks with the U.S. government to reduce the 10% tariff, and Bodegas de Argentina has communicated its concerns to the Foreign Ministry about the potential impact of the measure.

According to Coviar, there are good chances the negotiations could be successful. They also stated that there are some scenarios where the situation could actually benefit Argentina. “We have to wait and see how things play out. There is unofficial information that a package of tariff reductions is being negotiated. A favorable outcome would be that Argentina achieves a tariff reduction while European competitors do not,” Fiochetta pointed out.

“Another positive factor is having a strong domestic market. That way, the negative impact is lessened.

“Before the 10%, we were paying a tariff that varied between 3% and 4%, depending on the type of wine. Now, 10% is added on top of what already existed. If this holds, it would be very tough for the wine industry,” said Walter Bressia.

With one eye on Washington and the other on Brazil, Argentina’s wine sector remains on edge. What’s at stake isn’t just a percentage of exports, but the place that Argentine wine has managed to carve out—through great effort—in one of the most competitive markets in the world.”